Crisis and Speculation in the Marcos Regime (1980-1986)
Philippine Social Sciences Review
When a regime is perceived to be in crisis, speculation about its end begins to circulate. In the Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos, the early 1980s marked a period when signals of decline intensified, prompting key actors, from foreign intelligence officials to academics and opposition leaders, to project competing futures for the country. This paper analyzes these speculative discourses not as straightforward diagnoses but as strategic interventions shaped by political position, ideological commitment, and historical memory. The scenarios envisioned—ranging from communist takeover to transitional authoritarianism to democratic restoration—reveal how crisis reconfigures the boundaries of political possibility. These discourses offer insight into how authoritarian collapse becomes legible not only through institutional change, but through the ways people in the past imagined, and attempted to shape, what came next.
Keywords
Ferdinand Marcos
Marcos regime
political forecasting
historiography
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